X1/9, Future Classic or a Classic Already?

[Eugene Harvey]

Another thread started to take a turn completely off topic but was intriguing, and posed the question, Is the X1/9 a future classic, now 30 years since ceasing production, already a classic, or will never really be a true classic?
With a total production run of 165,000 over 17 years as both a Fiat and a Bertone, the numbers weren't small, but not large either. As a Bertone from 82-89, there were only around 19,500, so around 2,500 per year worldwide, which is now quite exclusive.
The relative low cost and initial poor quality of the steel used for the body work saw many rot away early in their life and their low inherit value make them uneconomical to rescue. So whilst there were 140,000 as Fiat's, it's anyone's guess as to how many survive today, and based on how many you see on the road, or coming up for sale, my guess is the number of survivors is less than you think.
Obviously as an owner of an X1/9 I have a bias and am of the opinion the X1/9 is already a classic.
I base my opinion on several key criteria, does the car have historical significance, is it unique, is it desirable, is it rare and is it exotic.
When I consider those criteria, for some the answer is yes. The X1/9 was the first mid-engined sports car manufactured for the masses, a layout at the time the domain of exotic super cars. The design was not just unique, but innovative, and made all other sports cars look dated and ordinary. It had pop-up headlights, a mid engine layout and a clever targa top that easily stowed under the front bonnet. The one thing that let the X1/9 down was its lack of power, which detracted from its desirability and at 165,000, wasn't overly rare at the time. But its quirky styling from Bertone made it a mini-exotic.
The styling of the X1/9 is such that a good example still gets inquisitive gazes and questions at the gas station. So for me the X1/9 is a classic, but its Achilles heal has always been the lack of power, for if it had the power its chassis demanded it would be cemented firmly as a classic. Had Bertone adopted the 1300 Uno Turbo during the mid/late 80's, who knows.

 

[Eugene Harvey]

An add from the past, you might just want one!

 

[Ed Lord]

I think it is a classic, an enthusiasts car. I just don’t ever think it’ll be collectible. It is pretty similar to a 914 Porsche, mid engine, underpowered, great fun as an entry level sports car. That said, I think they are cool as hell. It is like my Bugeye Sprite, makes me smile everytime I drive it.

 

[Eugene Harvey]

I just don’t ever think it’ll be collectible.

The 3 things going in its favor is design, Bertone, say no more, historical relevance, first mid-engined sports car in the era of MG's, Triumphs, Alfa's and even Fiats 124 spider, and surprisingly rarity, despite 165-170,000 total units, many have ended up scrapped.

 

[Tom Ginefra]

[QUOTE="Eugene Harvey, But its quirky styling from Bertone made it a mini-exotic.
The styling of the X1/9 is such that a good example still gets inquisitive gazes and questions at the gas station. So for me the X1/9 is a classic[/QUOTE]

When I bought my car I had to trailer it home. On the way to the shop we pulled into a nearby Autozone, to buy a battery. I was in the store for all of 5 min before I had to run back out and double check what side the + terminal was on. When I walked toward the car I was surprised to see a about a half a dozen people hanging around the trailer, pointing and staring at my X, as though it was some obscure exotic. They had never seen one before. They asked me, What is it? Who makes it? How much does it cost? How fast can it go? They all thought the car was cool as hell, and were equally surprised to learn it was a FIAT. And, this was all before I did anything to improve the looks of the car! They definitely attract attention!

 

[NEG]

Prices in Europe appear to be creeping up for good solid examples. However, there’s a lot of overpriced rubbish about that isn’t selling even basket cases where the owner has greatly overestimated the cars worth.

 

[aarpcard]

I still think there's way too many of them out there for them to be scarce enough to warrant a significant price rise any time soon.

Take the Gen 2 MR2 for example versus the MKIV Supra. Based on the factors that make cars collectible, I'd rank them similarly. Both are iconic, both have similar performance figures, both are nearing 30 years old, both have stellar looks, and have cult followings. Despite these similarities, Supra prices have skyrocketed to $30K to $60K+ depending on the condition and options, while even the best MR2 examples struggle to break $10k and have been on a continual downward trend. Your average MR2 turbo can be had for $5k-$6k while the starting price for an average Supra is around the $30k mark.

Whats the source of the descrepancy? I think it can mainly be attributed to production numbers. There were 12K MKIV Supras sold in the US and 33K MKII MR2s. If you are in the market for an MR2 you have a 300% greater chance of finding one than if you were looking for a Supra. Collectors cars by definition are niche cars - there isn't a high demand for them compared to a daily driven econobox like a Toyota Camry - the average Joe isn't running out to buy a collectors car. So it seems to me that when the market for a particular car that fits the "collectors" criteria is saturated by much more than ~10k examples, the price is negatively effected; get much more than 20k examples and the price is floored. With so many cars available, anyone who wants one has bought one (or more than one; how many of us here have mutliple X's?).

Think about it - if 40,000 Countaches were built instead of just ~2000, the Countach would currently be a sub $50k car.

The X1/9 falls into the MR2 boat. There's way too many of them. In order for them to be scarce enough for significant upward price movement to occur in the US, ~85%+ of the cars would need to have been scrapped or wrecked to get near that 10K availability number. I may be wrong, but I don't think that's realistic. I think there are a lot more X1/9's out there, including decent ones, than we might realize. The vast majority of the X's that come up for sale on CL or Ebay are not tied in any way to this forum - using the sample size of cars that pass through this forum is, I think, misleading. In the Spring and Summer, its usually easier to find a good condition X1/9 for sale, than it is an MR2 . . . and MR2's don't rust.

I think if the numbers of X's still in existance were indeed low enough to warrant higher prices we would know it because, well, the prices would already be significantly higher than they are now. As others have said, the X already meets all the other collectors criteria.

All of that being said, I hope the prices stay low. I can only imagine the level of anxiety one must have driving around a $120k Jalpa, or $300k Countach. If you get run off the road by an oblivious soccer mom, you're probably not going to get another one. If the same happens while you're in your X, then there are plenty of other examples to buy. Owning and driving the X is the equivalent of owning an Italian exotic minus the anxiety

 

[Rupunzell]

Scarcity-Rarity alone has never resulted in market value. Market value is perceived and the worth of any material item is often based on desirability by potential buyers. The topic of market value past, present and future has been discussed a great detail and in depth many times on Xweb. Pointing to the design pedigree and glowing moto media reviews from the past of the exxe would indicated it IS a coveted classic with significant market value, in the real world this idea-belief has been mostly false. The fundamental factor to creating perceived market value of any moto has much to do with Brand Identity and the Social Status associated with a given moto brand. As an example Porsche will be used again due to the previous discussion about the Porsche 912. Consider the vast amount of resources and efforts put in by the folks at Porsche to win races that fit their target marketing best. Rules for any given race were scrutinized down to each and every letter to discover potential loop-holes and how the rules can be best gamed-expolitied to gain a winning advantage. Rule makers were given then take lobbying to create rules that fit the marketing agenda of given brand and intent. As the circus of racing unfolds, the winner is perceived by the audience as top of the heap best and should be the brand that is best in every way... under the guise of, "Everyone Wants To Be A Winner." with, "No One Wants To Be Second Place."

Play this circus in the eyes of the audience enough times and the mass public will begin then become ingrained with the idea-belief the brand that won most IS the best and those lesser is not worthy. Even when the actual contents of the winning technology item has ZERO to do with the actual production offering. It is the image of winning created that has value and being a member of that tribe-cult is worth the cost of admission to be seen in the public eye as being a member-associate of that brand's tribe-cult. This is why the Porsche brand has market value, it has little to do with their actual technical excellence and real world performance. This basic concept of marketing has been used in everything from Diamonds to Food to Cars to Homes and more. It is much about wanting to believe fantasy rather than factual harsh reality mixed with the very basic human need to belong in a group-tribe-cult.

In the case of the exxe.. Fiat assure the future value of this design by oppressing in every way possible a proper development and racing history. Bertone as a carrozzeria had little to no technical ability to support and fund and proper race-marketing promo program as technical support and more would have been a must from Fiat.

This mixed with the Fix It Again Tony market brand image of Fiat and perception of rapid rust bucket continues to assure a rather undesirable market brand identity & Social Status. Being an exxe owner for decades and having spent a significant amount of time with this design, much has been learned about the moto itself, it's history and it's market brand image. Reality is IMO, the exxe will never be of signifiant market value even when it is already a very signifiant and classic design in every way. The perceived market value, social status of ownership and all related is simply not in place.

Better to simply enjoy what the exxe has to offer, flavor the greatness that has been designed in from it's very beginnings and forgo the idea-belief of what it's market value might be as it is in many ways simply not important or relevant.

This is much the belief and attitude of Pete Giddings who open trailers more than a few of his very rare pre WW-II race cars often with market values in the millions of U$D. Over the course of our many discussions about vintage race cars and the classic car market, his take on this is to enjoy them while you're alive as the moto's current owner is more caretaker and these creations should be used in as intended. This does mean taking them to public events and racing them as intended as a sharing of what these creations were intended to do.

That is me chatting with Pete Giddings in the driver's seat of his Lancia D24. This is a rare Lancia indeed, yet it is registered as a street-road car and Pete drives it on the street... even to the local market. IMO, a rather health way of vintage car ownership, enjoyment and sharing with others.

http://petergiddings.com/Cars/LanciaD24.html

Bernice

 

[Cratecruncher]

Aarp, have you checked MR2 prices lately? Clean low mileage turbos are $15-$20k all day long in 2018: https://bringatrailer.com/toyota/sw20-mr2/
An average 4 cylinder Porsche 914 is a $15k car now: https://bringatrailer.com/porsche/914/

 

[Rupunzell]

If the moto is made of steel, aluminum or similar metal corrosion-rust is assured.
NO brand-design is exempt. Nature will have it's way regardless of human intervention.

*Essentially, MR2s can and DO rust.
https://www.mr2oc.co.uk/forum/198/126803.html

Seen plenty of MR2 at 24 Hours of LeMons, most are total rust buckets. Difference between the exxe and MR2 in this regard, the perception of rust being a problem.


Bernice

. . . and MR2's don't rust.

 

[Cratecruncher]

I guess the thrust of my argument for appreciation in a nutshell is:
1) Cool little affordable cars are going up in value
2) The X1/9 is a cool little affordable car that is still cheap
3) It is VERY difficult to find a nice X1/9
THEREFORE:
X1/9's will increase in value!

 

[Rupunzell]

Which has zero relevance to the exxe.. read-understand the long winded previous post.

Fiat is NOT a Porsche or Toyota. Both Toyota & Porsche have far brighter market brand identity and social ownership status than Fiat-X1/9 which will continue to suppress the market value of the X1/9 to the very last X1/9. Verify this by visiting any car show, then ask participants their perception-view of Fiat. Then ask them about the X1/9 = Reality Check, assertion verification folks can do on their own.


Bernice

Aarp, have you checked MR2 prices lately? Clean low mileage turbos are $15-$20k all day long in 2018: https://bringatrailer.com/toyota/sw20-mr2/
An average 4 cylinder Porsche 914 is a $15k car now: https://bringatrailer.com/porsche/914/

 

[Eugene Harvey]

Fiat is NOT a Porsche or Toyota.

But from 1982 - 1989 it was a Bertone, an iconic italian brand such as Pininfarina. In fact it always was a Bertone, as Bertone built the bodies from day one and Fiat provided the running gear. Key reason the X1/9 will always be more collectible and historically relevant than the MR2, is the reason why the Lotus Elan will always be more collectible than the Miata (MX5), is because one was the pioneer and the other the imitator.

But there is no reason for 'collectability' or desirability, much is driven by nostalgia, and at some stage there is a tipping point. The X has historical relevance that can't be replaced, which is why I doubt prices are going to come down. At some have pointed out the Fiat name can be a detractor, but you only need look at the price for a good example of the Fiat Bambina, the little bubble car, where some are reaching $30K. The X I put in the same category as the Bambina, as another quirky small Italian Car, but styled by Bertone.
There is no rhyme or reason why cars suddenly start to appreciate, I have an Alfa GTV6, and have seen the value of that almost quadruple over the last 10 years. Why?

The number of X's available is not measured via this Forum, but sites across the Globe, and if you check now, you'd be lucky to find 10-20 good original examples globally.

 

[Eugene Harvey]

Fix It Again Tony

Ironically all makers are tarred with that brush, even FORD is known as 'Fix Or Repair Daily'.

 

[JimD]

Ironically all makers are tarred with that brush, even FORD is known as 'Fix Or Repair Daily'.

Or as Mac used to say: "FIAT stands for Ferrari In Affordable Trim"

 

[GregS]

The big question is what is going to happen to the whole classic car market over the next 10, 20 or more years with the advance of electric and autominous cars and government regulations? As the demand for fuel decreases the price will probably increase and the number of gas stations will become fewer and fewer. All the people paying $100k now for a Porsche or Ferrari thinking it will be appreciating in value may be sadly dissapointed. Future generations may not even be interested in cars except as a means of transport, there may be a glut of these museum pieces.
Just enjoy our classics now while we can.

 

[Eugene Harvey]

Somehow Classic is being confused with Value. Because a car is recognised as a Classic does not immediately mean valuable. My motivation for trying to preserve my X in as original condition as possible it not for potential financial gain, but as a recognition of the X as a vehicle of interest and historical significance, but also I like it, and like driving it, the most important point.
If is from this stand point that I believe the X1/9 is becoming more acknowledged as a classic. I am finding more and more, that if you buy a book on Classic Cars, Classic Sports Cars, or History of Classic Sports Cars, the little X is becoming a regular fixture. Under Fiat it is almost always listed, with the only other being the 124 Spider.
This is really the question being posed, as to whether the X1/9 is gaining recognition as a Classic Car, not so much, Is it an appreciating Asset.

 

[rocco79/138]

Well, I never thought I would type this but...
Bernice is right... and no matter how many angles you want to work this from this dead horse will remain dead.
Just a quick look at the wiki reveals that circa 1910 Fiat built a plant in Poughkeepsie, NY. Fiat was Italy's largest auto manufacturer at that time. "Owning a Fiat, in the US, at that time was a sign of distinction." The cost to own a Fiat was $4000! 8 years later it was $6400! That is distinction!
Scroll down to "Motorsport" on that page... three sentences... Yawn! The 124, 131(did pretty good) and the 037
2010 production 1.55m cars suffice to say they have ZERO concern for a car they did not want to build in 1972.
Actually they have little interest in the bubble known as the US(Western market). Here we market everything. Look at all the brands of motorized stuff and they are all racist... Ferrari are F1 racists, Toyota NASCAR racist, Nissan, Ford, Jag, on and on and on 24 hours of Le Mans(that real foreign racing thing) Audi and Subaru do the Ralley thing, but we don't really get that here in the colonys much! It is all perception or if willing celebrity.
If you have spare time look at some documentary films on motor sports. ALL the post war collectibles were and are there, most to this day!
An interesting one is "Harley and the Davidsons." They used racing to promote sales but Harley was all about the connection so when they sold bikes to Uncle Sam they provided training to the GIs to fix in the field. When/if they returned guess which brand they bought? They also focused heavily on the experience, rides and all sorts of group stuff. To this day it sticks.
"The 24 hour war" is fascinating and illustrates two very different approaches. Henry Ford II wanted to win races to sell cars(winning on Sunday means sales on monday!) and Enzo only sold cars to fund racing... sure the filmmaker probably tweaked reality a bit but it seems a fairly accurate account. The film discusses Enzo's reason for coming under the Fiat brand and his unwillingness to relinquish control of the race side of the business... Spoiler: this is why Ford's deal to buy Ferrari in the 60s? fell through.
Hagerty does a weird "Hot collectibles blurb" the most recent said the RX7 was a hottie! This makes sense because they made 850k of them. To be fair it was probably the turbo last gen or something like that but again they are all over motor sports. Not just the big events but they sponsor smaller stuff too. It is such a great illusion people actually go nuts for JDM stuff! Heck yeah that's the real deal! I am no longer going to call my reworked head a "euro spec" part but instead I will call it "Italian Domestic Market" part or just IDM.
People don't really think much so the concept that they would actually connect the design firm Bertone with having had anything to do with our cars is a stretch. They most certainly would not take any time to find out where the engine came from either.
Fiat sells cars, lots of cars! To people that use them to go where they have to go. It is not the love affair we have with ours cars...just have to get somewhere...
Sorry to be so negative but I see it as a "tough love thing" It would be neat were our lovely little car to have value but it will likely never be. Do not take this wrong, they have value but not the roll across Mechum or Jackson-Barrett auction on that red carpet being pushed by people in gloves value...
This will not change a thing but I really like the fact that the X1/9, warmed over, came in 11 in a hill climb in 2015 and the only cars ahead were full on race or specially built for the event. says a lot for the chassis! I may be mistaken on the first 10 cars but I don't remember seeing Porch or Audi or VW(or did I just repeat myself!?) come in ahead.
My greatest hope for our cars is that we have the stellar parts support that now enjoy, at least until I am not driving them! )
As long as we are on the subject of "things that will never happen" could I add just one more? well a couple... The 4C is not the new X, and not even a sports car IMO(three pedals and a stick shift or it is an automatic!!). There can't be another X1/9 or anything even resembling it because everything that was at work when it came to be has passed. Just look around at all the washed out bars of soap and Starwars toys they call cars and you should see what I mean.

 

[rocco79/138]

It is gaining recognition? yes value? no. My X1/9 took most votes at a recent drop in. I drove to another show and although I did not enter that event you could see my car in the adjacent lot. I had a kid follow me to my car and ask all about it then he told me he would have voted for me if he had seen it earlier... do they allow write-ins?
A samsung jv3 is $160 an iPhone XR $900... celebrity and market driven demand. Although we are pretty good at rewriting history in these parts X1/9 seems not to be a wrong that is in need of righting!

 

[NEG]

I think there is quite a large market difference between Europe and the US. MR2 prices in the uk seem to be on the floor over here. There’s about 1300 x19s registered in the UK, approx. 70 of these are 1300’s. Maybe these are the ones to keep an eye on.