X1/9, Future Classic or a Classic Already?

US(Western market)
OMG. You do realise the Western World includes most of Western Europe and Australasia, which probably goes somewhat to explaining the limited interest in European Cars in the US, and as such the US is the go to country for undervalued European Classics. So you are right to a certain degree, the future market for X1/9's in the US is pretty grim, but outside of the US X1/9's are appreciating, with low milage original examples now fetching in the region of US$15,000. But I guess we are dealing with localised markets where nostalgia and familiarity go a long way to dictating the market and the US to be fair is wedded to it's own history of muscle cars, cruisers, pickups, land ships of the 50's and 60's, much in the same way Australia is wedded to their long history of Fords and Holdens, where innocuous sedans and sport sedans reach $100,000 of dollars.
Again, I view classics as to what impact they had historically, such as the Model T Ford, the VW Beetle, the original Mustang, the Countach, the Mini, even the Porsche Boxster which turned around the fortunes of Porsche, and to an extent the way the X1/9 changed the small sports car market at the beginning of the 70's.
 
NEG, How do you and other British Xers view the fuel injected version?
Whilst not British, we also had the European model which was the Carburettor version, and also no air conditioning or all the catalytic converter plumbing added to the US model, which does dramatically impact the performance the X. Personally I prefer the basics of the Carburettor, that you can pull it to pieces and put it back together with ease. It makes working out what's wrong so easy, a fuel pump, jets, a distributor and a spark, a bit of a throw back to the past, but also eked every last hp out of the little single overhead cam engine.
 
Not sure our cars will ever be considered a collectible as an investment that will gain value. What I have noticed is there are fewer solid X’s for sale now than I have ever seen. I like to check e-bay at least once a week and it’s rare to see one for sale. You can pretty much search for any car make and model and find a few for sale on e-bay, not so for the x19.
 
Not sure our cars will ever be considered a collectible as an investment that will gain value
I agree that they are unlikely to be an investment that gains money, but well maintained won't loose money. They are in my opinion becoming collectible, for as you have noted, the reducing numbers coming up for sale, especially good solid examples. Being 30 years old, Italian and quirky, most have now found their way into the hands of enthusiasts where it is their weekend car or project car, and rarely the daily driver. There are now may affordable, modern and reliable sports cars out there, Miata's, BMW Z's, Boxsters, Audi TT's, and other soft top derivatives of Mini's, Golf's, BMW's, Peugeot's, Fiat 500's, etc.
 
Now we are getting somewhere... The prices or pricing varies by country so yes here in the states pretty low. To be fair little cars never caught on here. I grew up in Michigan and friends did not let friends drive foreign cars! I just put my new X together I sent a photo to my good friend since 5 YO and he said: "No offense,but I'm more into sexy American cars"... I guess you have to get out and about more to appreciate even different cars. The Nash Metropolitan was one of if not the first small US car and they have a very vibrant following strong club identity but fairly low value(money wise) I know a little about them because, being a designer, I like to know about what, who, why on the design side of things and the Metro was designed by a kid from Detroit who got a start in automotive by submitting a drawing for a Chrysler design contest.
I used to think like you concerning the carb FI thing but really FI is really pretty easy to troubleshoot and the carbs are more the dark arts...magic happens in there ;-) The FI does deliver a bit more punch but having a 1979 again I will admit to liking the carb better and it is more easily tuned to modifications. Not to mention better sounding.
I have owned an X1/9 since May of 1981 and except for one 1975 model I found them all to be extremely reliable. I just relocated my car to outside Charleston, SC for the year round top down driving and at the end of the five hour drive I thought: "I used to drive these things 16 hours straight... and I could do 11 more in this right now!"
I have been on numerous outings and the thing that stands out most is how truly small these cars are! There was a new NSX parked around the corner from the X and I couldn't believe how big even that car looked in comparison.
I too keep my car pretty stock... I really like how they did things... right down to the tap shifter! Man ! I just HAD to say that!! A 40 year old factory interior looks pretty cool!
I really don't currently hear anything about power but I do hear about the brakes... and that only because all brakes are now boosted so stock brake feel very different.
There are many classics that look a certain way but drive completely different... the Metro is a good example, and most muscle cars! The X even at 40 is still agile and nibble. This one is the best X I ever owned.
 
NEG, How do you and other British Xers view the fuel injected version?

I’m probably not the right guy to ask being new to x19 ownership....we never had the FI option over here and the history books read of a federal strangled engine to meet emissions, not something that desirable. I suspect the simplicity of the carburettor and familiarity with carbs in general would make many Brits prefer them. I would certainly but that’s just me and maybe a tainted view point having suffered the ‘delights’ of the Lucas PI system as fitted to Triumph TR6’s!
 
To highlight how topsy turvy the classic car world can be, look at the prices being asked for the classic Mini in the UK at the moment, there are lots about but because it’s iconic for us Brits the prices are eye watering for even the basic versions and facelifted models like the 1275GT. And then there’s the Fiat 500....crazy.
 
Classic? I suppose a lot depends on the definition?
Does racing history have anything to do with it? Fiat practically invented auto racing.
How about nostalgia? When was the last time you were at a gas station and someone didn't approach you with a story about owning one, or knowing someone who did?
Does value have anything to do with it? Really nice X's are selling in the $15k-$20k range. More than most cost new. How much does a classic cost? What's the current market price for nice Ford Model Ts?
As far as I'm concerned the X is a classic, but I'm biased.
 
Alfa Romeo has a very long history of racing success, technical excellence, associations with some of the best Italian car designers like Franco Scaglione/Bertone, Giorgetto Giugiaro (GTV-6) and others. Add to this the Alfa Romeo V6 designed by
Giuseppe Busso. Cosworth wanted to purchase the design, production rights and all related production tooling. Cosworth wanted to put this Alfa Romeo V6 back into production as a race motor, Alfa folks said no. Still more, this Alfetta series was technically and dynamically excellent in many ways. What happened to the GTV-6 and the original GTV is no surprise as they are well associated with the Alfa Romeo brand and it's history. There were many other Alfa Romeos that had low market value then became market desirable like the Alfa Montreal and many others. This moto market occurrence also happened to many other brands like BMW, Porsche, Lancia, BL, Jag, Toyota, Datsun, Detroit muscle and ..... for many of the same reasons, individuals perceive monetary value in these motos nothing more-nothing less.

Alfa Romeo's historical significance is possible why Sergio M ditched Lancia (IMO, some of the most important moto innovations originated at Lancia. Went broke trying to build excellence rather than profit) as the Alfa Romeo brand has a better moto folks perception, race history and moto history.
Enzo Ferrari was well associated with Alfa Romeo long before the Ferrari brand was created.. and that is another story of market branding.

This Alfa Romeo 8C grand prix car was driven by Tazio Nuvolari, has historical significance in many ways. It is one of many examples of why the Alfa Romeo brand carries the branding it does in the moto minds of some.
vesQlZ59ELdYrCJSucIQVmrKFrdMdgq7sl1boo7r4MNvnbn6I0xkKKiU3-KgtNHBt6jNXzWbIXpxDwgtO65-wxBveyYU1mQcrj5rhkJW_UKSkAd_llvgLVKJdUtF9FJqnLVKENADaKh9bkxpV4XWnS9NeVQJWXCCV71-aphh9TlCjVX1tfUWrisxw5jYAQJrrSyPj39C_lqRl3NWg8IVUtCbwi61v1St2cT553-E2QYguUMz9T858v78LdsVgAaAsR7opEahdRZaeJcde6Oa69xSHRmgmyo73eRiLo82WAMNmCs9eN99rfwWMwtB9gY4U5onyB9q5E3cPDjMCP9IYemC1888T-T378oHJVzxcyXjRayyeAaqYm0uQkoM5e7TZYFaz7IUxImSDnNy4DvwPrA0-A0JCZ6ZvHc4RHPVPsg0VUg9ZAzNgMY5Ib5HlSA2D4GSD5VqOF6gC1s_H3IFwEls-zDo7CS-y5lUFvnuV_8AaVV5uSykQrDrJevvQqNcxQjCELasX1lK01Zs-JLHJ5Uqs8Yd84JS2euYn186vwBz3HjUjvamkAhDUdyjYAJpurmH7yN5N6_gR9TaIQY3MbQsZzIFnWfZ6CPWDf5SHxvNplz1PkCTS4vIKPxzwC6kpsHVP5pfJmEWutkIpFCC6YcQ=w1600-h1200-no


That's me in this 8C, the throttle pedal is in the center. controls are not the same as a modern moto in many ways
wu4cYU73ig4VWp1ivRQk-6QL_A1Mj8dxO2S5c71Bby7QLRGWeCZAxBTRoEzwFbw5tuCw2b1w5LvRhqiiOQMLUdeUZZbC0aEVRzEiRTv8G3AQoZcFes84DIV1FHX0zvLVRFB_Bimeex6D1_upXy2qFICn1fQQII1W6A23LJz-LUgyx9p8Wsq4_GhxSKOJ68PxE8ytAS_byqVctqv2yVmxV6ENoBxr-wPiTyB6gCn4xY_HbEFWP82HGKq8W6ucpHZJfFYNroRUm9zwyyThY84IdWUM4iO0mpEx4wW-jXVFZx69U_54J67-fgcWhiQeINzwWewMyWeT90CdMCgNnip4JAJQA-7E8_QPNKwzxS2VHnqZftBOIzCi9kiOyUkYJoMf9IBgG2k8QAtBvs6ryUMvMq5i-YAUkZh1eRheEWtkyGUvGBZjGAPW63KLT5TnBTE7ADb_WB8nm0XjLwUT2Hxh2Zkc9MlkCVMNUa6TBzD8o6L-N3y6w5QPnhQgkBrgiaY6u7hjAqddl8MkZnjo_dMFIBaNXIlwCcUmtuQpcZhRBNiLBZ4ialUMBFbCncjWsTfnJONpHgClX18mc92rmRU106jxsj5qWVlg0CmvTxg2ppN1VIhcJ_TAkboq8T7fEIT-QyxbGF_n54AZZvD_RBrvmIX1=w1680-h1254-no


Bernice


There is no rhyme or reason why cars suddenly start to appreciate, I have an Alfa GTV6, and have seen the value of that almost quadruple over the last 10 years. Why?
 
This 1993 Saab 9000 Aero, 5 speed was sold to me for $1. There were about 400 of these made-imported to the US of A that year. It's market value .. is nil. For the curious, look up how many Saab 9000 Aeros are registered MOT in the UK for an example of rarity.
sGpXSqiS1_aitkQYTvU118fxLAYRVF-Vvs5MOlmSQZUZ4uUUuQNa2iasSzogdQ4tDAf5TWr_PKTZyVuXyH2vq3gc7L_7UV_1K0xKsARI-Gfi-XHK9ILPdizWRn2gY3I35U3Hlky-76xJ7s9G_SREhLzJn6tkdGWqUyuPYvMJE4LxUTvJEnhWlenPL9f6PzSv5WGA-TCp1IVeOmk4YNm2JK1JvHaLHg6YOQfXouo80I3dB2UaWwdN00bUP1wyE8j7JZZhD_b4Ou7miWe-PRCQwx8cEdpoLShEqvaUJCeVWljUX74JlPss0e2xuO1P8lalhxPhhRuQiirgvz29xqA8uUvPv7Q9y9g4PUQIU2RMomhXe4VX_jL03JHIZhkfVJZxyGEBIMu232Nz2L-OAonzcnVtXNUq5LOVKkjVhndHBhUCdKmo7jumx_U-mj1aAocorR3XFEJNV-3GPQWteDPmnIqZtYeYfQMhD4hcq-p6OQvCaX2mrmSu5iRcLEn7M1J_uNX_kvqxcKXjWFEV8SBDE0gAdmZkO3y2Sb5jPX4-2lw-z2d0Ox_qH_HOKMHsEUF0m95r7NetQim-DhWwcF1I8AOdPHBM-iBJfr3HF0y0EkLDmMXmtA_EY7C43S2iGY3_CzzqThfa3i0soP7-Lwfmgqqh=w1882-h1254-no


Rarity does not equate to market value in many examples. Also have Lancia Scorpion-MonteCaro another low volume moto.. it's market value... remains questionable in the US of A.

In many ways, market value is NOT relevant to enjoyment and experience of any moto. There is a friend in Italy who runs a restoration shop. His clients know more about the market value and investment potential of their motos than their technical-historical significance let alone drive them. For that crowd their moto ownership is much about where to put monetary funds that can be safe and potentially increase in market value.. no different than speculating- "investing" in Art.


Bernice


I still think there's way too many of them out there for them to be scarce enough to warrant a significant price rise any time soon.
 
Rarity does not equate to market value in many examples.

Yet for a car to be significantly valuable, it must also be rare.

Not all rare cars are valuable, but I'd wager the vast majority of valuable cars are rare. For this part of the "collectability" equation, its essentially supply and demand.

Any car that is considered a valuable collector's car, would have its market value plummet if a warehouse of tens of thousands of examples was suddenly discovered and those cars flooded the market.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

We can discuss all we want on what would make appropriate criteria for judging the collectability of a car and whether or not the X meets those criteria. At the end of the day, the value of the X won't go up significantly if the market is saturated with them.

It would be very interesting to find numbers of currently or recently registered cars in the US. Earlier a comment was made on how there are no good X's currently on ebay as an example of scarcity. That's not a good barometer. I've kept a close eye on X (and MR2) advertizements on Ebay and CL over the past several years. There is an undeniable trend when it comes to sports cars advertisements. In late fall/winter/early sping there are few listings. In Spring and Summer, there are boat loads - maybe an average of a dozen or so X's listed a month.

The rate destruction of X's to rust or wrecks is not linear. I imagine it is roughly reciprocal. (The more X's there are, the more likely it is that they will be wrecked and also more of them will be in the hands of people or don't care about them and let them deteriorate. As the number of X's in existance drops with time, the rate of X's being wrecked will decrease due to there being fewer on the roads to be wrecked and the percentage that remain or fall into the hands of people who care about them increases due to the fact that all of those cars that were in the hands of careless owners have already been removed from the population.) Theoretically, the rate of decay decreases exponentially. After a certain point there is very little downward movement. If there were 160,000 cars built and we assume we are deep into that decay with 15% remaining (which I think is low), then we still have 24,000 X's in existance (far too many to ever be significantly valuable), and that number will continue drop very, very slowly.

If it took 25 years for 160,000 to drop to 24,000, then it will take ~14 more years for that number to drop to 16,000 (10% of cars remaining), and ~50 more years to drop to 8,000 (5% of cars remaining).
 
I recall in August 2011, when those Hemmings articles were written, people were hunkered down at their desks afraid to take a lunch for fear they would be put on the lay-off list. Perhaps the last thing on any middle-class mind was buying a toy-car. I've noticed after watching many years that the affordable collector market is quite cyclical because it is after all an extravagance. The appreciation we're now seeing with the X and other budget collectibles something to do with a mature global expansion. Many hobbyists have been behaving themselves, gotten the technical degree, bought a house, own a couple of boring sedans, and at 33 have an itch to drive something fun or maybe take something apart. He/she might buy a Miata, or a hip Fiat 500, or just maybe a nice X1/9. Exposure is the key and Bring-A-Trailer is watched by many a would-be gearhead on office time.

When I lived in the San Francisco Bay Area I would make an annual pilgrimage to the Monterey Historic Races held at Luguna Seca in August. The best part of that weekend was trolling the paddock and talking with owner/drivers about some of the rarest cars in the world: D-Types, 917's, Bugatti's. Everyone was so friendly and anxious to share their experience. Great memories but 90% of the world will never live close enough to have access to this kind of exposure.

Realize there are a lot of "new" people in the world that didn't exist in 1981 when Fiat left North America. Their only exposure to the Fiat brand is very recent. They have never heard of an X1/9 nor attended a car race and don't know much about provenance or lineage. In fact some millennials I know are a bit averse to autosport generally because they feel it is anti-environmental. Circuit of the Americas here in Austin was only green-lighted after being "green-washed" with promises of an electric vehicle proving ground!
 
Needle that has been in a haystack is rare, collectable?

Again, value of any material item is directly tied to how much any individual is willing to give for it's title-ownership no more, no less.

Again, value of any material item is perceived. Creation (creation of fantasy often based on deception) of desirability drives market value. This is just one of many elements of marketing and human psychology based on decades of Academic studies and Human history. This knowledge based is used to create perceived value by marketing folks.


Bernice
 
Needle that has been in a haystack is rare, collectable?

Again, value of any material item is directly tied to how much any individual is willing to give for it's title-ownership no more, no less.

Again, value of any material item is perceived. Creation (creation of fantasy often based on deception) of desirability drives market value. This is just one of many elements of marketing and human psychology based on decades of Academic studies and Human history. This knowledge based is used to create perceived value by marketing folks.


Bernice

I'm glad to see you have an interest in product marketing Bernice. I'm retired now but in addition to design engineering, much of my career was in the capacity of a product manager in the commercial truck industry. The Peterbilt 377a/e, Unibilt integral, American Class interior, Mack Vision are a few examples of my work. Convincing owner/operators and fleet managers to pay a premium for our products was basically my job.
 
If it took 25 years for 160,000 to drop to 24,000, then it will take ~14 more years for that number to drop to 16,000 (10% of cars remaining), and ~50 more years to drop to 8,000 (5% of cars remaining).
Thanks for my laugh for the day!

This reminds me of a Todd Snider song... Statistician's blues

"They say that sixty-five percent of all statistics
are made up right there on the spot
Eighty two point four percent of people believe em
Weather they're accurate statistics or not
I don't know what you believe
But I do know there is no doubt
I need another double-shot of something ninety-proof
I got too much to think about!"

I have been gone for about a year and like they say on the Sapranos:
"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"
Not even in a day in and I realize I just can't bear to do this Socially transmitted media rabbit hole stuff!
Wishing everyone great driving weather, curvy roads and repairs that turn out to be less expensive/complex than first imagined!
Arrivederci
 
Back
Top