Where goest the...

U

usta in Portland

Daily Driver
GOP?
Santorum sweeps the board yesterday? Even Colorado?
Is there enough focus to beat Obama?
Could sheer 'Romney aversion' do 'em in?
Paul fading fast?
Conservatives jumping on Clint Eastwood?

Strange days, very strange days indeed:hmm2:
 
Obama will lose if the voters have decides it's time for him to go. I don't think it matters much who wins the GOP nomination. However, contrary to popular opinion, I think Romney is Obama's weakest potential opponent. I still think Romney winning the nomination is not inevitable. The only reason he has any chance at all is because his opponents are so weak and his organization is so strong.
 
Your phrasing is very interesting...

in that it implies that that the election is Obama's to lose. It's a position I agree with as well as thinking Romney a pretty pale opponent when it gets right down to it; the 'independent' and swing voters may be put in a 'devil we know vs. devil we don't know' position. There isn't any way the GOP can play the 'elitist' card against Obama with Romney carrying the colors and he sure won't excite the conservative base. If the economic news keeps tending the way it has been going (he is in not much worse condition than RR in '83 at this point) Obama may not be as vulnerable to an attack from the middle; and how is Romney going to back off his new found 'more conservative than thou' posture without both alienating the fiscally conservative but socially liberal independents and proving that he is the flip-flopper that he has been indicted for being all along. And then there is the Hispanic block-especially in Florida-to get around (Marco Rubio=VP?)
Yep, pretty interesting chess game and only a few moves in!:eek:mg:
 
An incumbent democrat has only been defeated for reelection once in the last century. That statistic alone suggests Obama has better than even odds at winning. However, it's hard to see how he does better than he did in 2008 and that wasn't a very big victory considering the circumstances. The GOP still has an advantage nationally that Obama has to overcome. But the "devil we know" syndrome will work in his favor if the economy continues the way it's been going. If it gets worse he's likely done regardless of his opponent. Then there is the potential wild card of a strong third party. This year is shaping up to be a great third party year if someone with the resources decides to go for it. Ballot and media access makes it nearly impossible for an independent to win but it could alter the race in a number of ways. In any case, a narrow Obama win likely sets up a Democratic Party apocalypse in 2016.
 
A third party...

complication should put him in for another term. The economy might be stabilized enough to get him through the rest of the year-Europe may be just a 'beggar-thy-neighbor' proposition for us-the worse it is for them the better for us as even more foreign money rolls into Treasuries. Our economy is 87% domestic, so all the talk about a slow down in exports to Europe is not very convincing and our banks are pictures of health as against all but the British and even they are not in great shape.
Obama may be one of Napoleon's 'lucky generals'!:D
 
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